Mike Jay’s 2012 Forecast

2012 & Beyond "Design" Forecast [Update]

2007 | 2009

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Here it is, my forecast for the year and beyond that the calendar ends!

Make sure yours doesn’t, eh?<G>

  • Obama Wins!  Swing voters, Polarization and Independents split the vote, Obama 41%!

  • European Upside Down Social Pyramid is going to come back onto the radar in the European Recession going on right now.  Somehow or another, Europe has kept quiet it’s social pyramid that is causing fewer and fewer people working to support more and more people retiring and relying on the social safety net which is FAR more expensive than anyone realizes!  Japan has a similar problem but supports it through extensive saving. Europe can thought of, as a bank to big to fail!

  • Monitoring Sentiment in Real Time will become critical for all in 2012 & Beyond. Psychology is the key to all of the events that will unfold this year and next.  Monitoring sentiment for noise and signal is going to be key.  Consumer confidence showed to be at it’s highest point since July in USA…yet NOT higher than the start of 2011…and that is with all of the variety of statistical distortions that have occurred as a result of shifting manipulation.

  • Psychology Tips.  UP and until this point, psychology is matching the old paradigmatic assumptions that business is as usual and that things go up, and things go down.  Once people realize that the timing of things going up, and things going down will shift, psychology will begin to tip out of beta, and into bifurcations of flexflow (few people ready), towards gamma –> most

  • Bifurcation!  The big word for what has emerged from asymmetry.  Note I predicted that asymmetry would be a troubling series of actions for the future…and it’s here with Bifurcation.  The very idea that bifurcation has occurred and is now a descriptor in social terms brings about a host of additional concerns about: young vs. old; have vs. have not; express self values vs. sacrifice self values; tech vs. anti-tech, and so on, the matrix for the next half-century. Fractionalization, along with power laws aid in bifurcation.

  • OrganoTECH: technology which IS its own teacher, requiring no long term training or assimilation to use…use out of the box without training.  All software moves to cloud and the actual leverage created by a cloud will become a reality. Facebook, iCloud, Amazon, etc. It’s only a matter of time before global decision systems begin to emerge in finance, politics, ecology, and education. (It already exists to some extent, but needs more leverage.)  For instance, I subscribe to a service that places any new research into my desktop when it appears…like my iCloud does with my photos.  I take it once, it’s immediately in service everywhere!

  • Genes Everywhere!  We will see a proliferation of genetic testing that allows us to understand our likely predisposition to everything from soup to nuts!  We will actually begin to incorporate gene information into our daily design for work, life, play and relationships…and it will all come through the lowering of barriers to the use of genetic testing globally.

    Volume 28, Issue 11, November 2012, Pages 535–537
    Forum: Science & Society
    The golden age of DNA metasystematics
    Mehrdad Hajibabaei
    Biodiversity Institute of Ontario, Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tig.2012.08.001, How to Cite or Link Using DOI

    The convergence of next-generation sequencing and DNA barcoding has sparked a golden age of ‘DNA metasystematics’, allowing researchers to understand the biodiversity of an entire ecosystem solely through DNA information, and transforming the way we view the living world around us.

  • Housing will take a minimum of 10 years to recover.  Housing prices will continue to decline through 2015, and as many as 1 in 5 people will ultimately lose their homes.  Rental housing investments will continue to be lucrative starting in 2016.

  • Barney Frank Credit.  I’m naming this after Congressman Barney Frank who was responsible for pushing through legislation for people who couldn’t afford houses, but had good credit.  Now, all those millions of people don’t have houses, but they have earned BAD CREDIT.  This large amount of people toppling the equilibrium in housing (500,000 homes foreclose a year in normal times).  Now more than 10,000,000 households will reach a foreclosed state during the next 5 years.

  • Consumption will drop by more than 10% in the USA.  Consumption by private individuals is commonly thought to be directly and indirectly about 70% of the total GDP.  Using this ratio, private consumption will drop 10% between 2012-2015, in large part due to the lack of credit from normal channels, such as credit cards, and credit score related consumption.  In a service economy, even a 5% drop in consumption has ultra-serious ramifications.

  • CyberSecurity has reached a tipping point.  Needs for securing a mass exclusion in personal devices will become a personal concern.  And I foresee, a Cyber Risk Index for business.  Predictions for 2012 Breaking News: Chinese penetrate US Chamber of Commerce!

    October 26, 2012, 2:47 p.m.Obama order would beef up cyber security, a former aide says

    In a recent speech to business leaders, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta revealed for the first time how a virus wiped data from more than 30,000 oil company computers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

  • Broadening Social & Economic Unrest.  Duh.  Why would I put this?  To remind you that we are all too narrow in our thinking and mapping.  Even then, the map, doesn’t equal the territory and this is going to bite us, because of the interdependencies that are unconceivable to the normal person at this time.  The entire globe will undergo a period of social unrest, due to such weird-sounding factors as the SUN passing through the Milky Way.   Research has shown that solar radiation affects everything, including weather, our attitudes, and our social fabric.  This may be the most overlooked forecast I make, and it is has the biggest leverage over time.

  • Shariah Financing will become "relevant" in 2012 as more and more people search for alternatives to what has emerged as "Corporate Capitalism" (my name), fitting with the maturing of the ER/Orange vMEME which is vying for density in the developed world, as an answer to current conditions. Shariah Info

  • Inflammation will become known as the real culprit, or disease behind almost all major killers…?  Major developments will occur over the next 18-24 months that will DIRECTLY affect inflammation and all of it’s related maladies.  We, who are the first line of defense against incubating diseases, must take up arms against inflammation.

  • WildCARDS. What is driving fear in all forecast markets are "WildCARDS".  Futurists are talking about these probabilities as if they are going to be real, and while some may come true, they are accountable for a significant portion of speculation and the "speculation" risks that are evolving –> driving up fear and prices. In other words, a speculation risk is built into all pricing.  Speculation, because of uncertainty, will now confound all models of how things work.

    • Take Financial Derivatives for example, they have increased $107 trillion since the

    • beginning of the year to now around $707 trillion. Current Total  “It’s pretty clear,” says Michael Pento, offering a major 2012 prediction, “that we’re going to see some sort of military action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, either by Israel, the United States or even NATO” — driving oil to $200 a barrel.

  • Deflation.  There isn’t a doubt in my mind that deflation is the concern now in all smoke-filled offices, and the REASON for this is demand.  Demand is driven by demographics.  In the west, the average household earns around $50k, in China $5k.  So, the gap between the demand "dollar volume" in the two sets of demographics is offset by quality and quantity.  The question is not whether or not there will be deflation, but how long will it last.  If it comes fast, it goes fast (Depression).  If it comes slow, it will stay around a LONG time (Japanese Model).

  • Too Many of Everything: Restaurants, Banks, Auto Dealers, Retail, Electronics, etc.  This "consolidation" is occurring for a number of reasons.  Shopping is changing because of technology, allowing more fractionalization (smaller stores selling what you want).  Demographics is shifting demand, along with deflation of money and credit, and this is creating zombie "everything", living, but dead, kept alive by the strange convergence of forces holding onto the old paradigm, work, desperately needed employment, deep discounting and bankruptcy protection.

  • Interdependencies.  Because of interdependencies and the "flat world" that has emerged, ‘CORPORATE’ capable of selling globally have decoupled themselves from the ups and downs of the country-culture cycle.

  • Karl Marx!  When there is excess labor, labor can’t protect it’s income.  Yet, how do we get excess labor? Isn’t that unemployment?  NO.  Excess labor occurs when paradigms shift and what jobs were a part of and in demand for that paradigm evaporate with the onset of the new paradigm.  We have excess labor globally because of the demand for jobs which are much more foundationally sophisticated, requiring shifts in education, skill development, training and re-training, and the recognition by powers that be, that excess labor, not unemployment is the key to understand.  We have excess labor because the jobs that existed for our skills match have been taken by people willing to work for less and match up better to the available jobs. The reason we don’t have unemployment and the focus on creating jobs is present, is because the powers at be, don’t understand what has happened and if they try to create jobs for the skills we have now, they will ultimately go to the people who can be employed for the least amount of money and benefits. A great salary mediation is occurring, and as Marx said, we can’t protect our income any longer, we can only re-match our skills to different work.

  • Irreversibility? The ECB said that the Euro is irreversible, and this is not true.  Whether it is formal or informal, the euro will reverse itself and strange things will start to emerge as it appears that on one level, the Euro is ok, on other levels, the informal way in which lesser countries will be forced to act will defy irreversibility.  The euro was mainly created for Germany, and the trade for neighbor "states" and to confuse it as a world currency.  A reserve currency is a big reach when you have what is happening asymmetrically in Europe.  The only way the Euro could remain is as a reserve currency…or global currency.  What I see as taking place is the world will choose a neutral currency, or make up a new one, which transcends all, but it won’t be gold.

  • Reading List. Start Making a Reading/Listening List for your planned/timed sabbatical.  Sitting-out the big one?  In the event of chaos, or the edge of chaos and the underlying re-ordering of society, it might be an interesting idea to sit it out.  Renewing yourself during a period of time where marginal returns/income may be completely absent, it might be better to just get ready for the rebound.

  • Water.  Not equal to oil yet, but the focus on water as part of a critical energy pyramid will finally get to your tap in this period.  Water is becoming harder to get and you will start to see global players start to reposition themselves with water in mind.

  • Asian Real Estate?  Not just China, but everywhere in the emerging markets where "demand" was created by capital trying to find higher returns!  The question is this: will the real-estate crisis in China produce what the real-estate crisis in Japan produced in the late 1980s.  Probably not, but it does pose the question, is this part of the perfect storm?

  • Personal Responsibility. This is the hardest prediction I have to make.  It involves people moving to a point to where taking personal responsibility will take them "out" of social acceptance and it’s going to happen in several phases.  Since this is likely to amplify a lot of other factors, I should spend a few moments teasing it out:

  • all change is wrapped up in denial

  • denial gives way to more and more facts of reality

  • denial shifts into cover-up, because no one wants to be "out" there

  • reality "uncovers" and exposes our errors,

  • rather than take personal responsibility, we look for "outside" factors

  • EVEN though at the root of our failure is our own apparatus…

  • we will continue to jump into the river of blame with everyone else…

  • at some point, when enough people are in the river, massive action will occur

  • if a large group of people, all at once jump into the river, structures will shift

  • If enough people in enough places jump in, the old paradigm will be challenged

  • it is too early to tell whether this will cause the paradigm to topple, most likely chaos will emerge…and it is possible that the old paradigm will try to hang on as long as it can…and in doing so, usher in ultra serious consequences…before it gives way.

  • Complexity Reigns.  The gap between what we know and what we don’t know we don’t know has gone exponential. "These complexities are playing the primary role in generating and sustaining the negative emotions of uncertainty and fear, hampering system operations since uncertainty and fear are largely and liberally applied to unscientific estimations of that erstwhile unimportant counterparty risk."

  • Exponentiality.  Non-Linearity is now present in all of our systems: finance, food, flight, and everything else.  We just have no real conception of what this means and almost all of our predictive systems are as good as the systems we use for the weather. A Close Look At Exponentiality.

In all of this, we are all silly to think we know what we are doing.  We don’t know what we are doing because what we are doing is based entirely on a myopic view of reality generated in large part by our own self-hugging responses to limited information.

If you did want to play this game, how would you play?

Join us for ValuSync to understand how to flex among four interdependent movements. Design your way out of the ignorance and through the complexity in today’s world by engineering your own system driven by design.

See our lagniappe’s when you click here: Is 2012 an Opportunity or a Challenge?