Forecast Matrix 2013-14: Sneak Preview

 Delivered January 3, 2013

Forecast 2013-2014
Research for the forecast

You may want to review some of the top findings of 2012,
spanning political, economic, wellbeing, and world news.

The large majority of Americans (69%) say they are optimistic about how they and their family will do in 2013, while 27% are pessimistic.
Democrats and young adults are the most positive about what the coming year will bring.

Bond King Bill Gross, manager of the nearly $2 trillion PIMCO Total Return Fund  believes stocks and bonds
will return less than 5% in 2013…unemployment (currently at 7.7%) will stay above 7.5%…"gold goes up."

Forecast Matrix 2013-14

The One Rule to Generate Profits: Follow the Money
Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor The Sovereign Individual


NOW (Next 6 Months)

NEAR (6-18 Months)

FAR (2-10 years)


Recession in the USA, where GDP drops into negative territory, marks a correction, a fiscal deal is done to reduce spending, entitlements, and the growth of conventional spending programs, including retirement age, increased taxes on the wealthy, and significant tax incentives to create jobs, investment and re-shoring.


The U.S. would go over the "fiscal cliff" leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.


Achilles Heel: Fear

Recession resolves: Manufacturing  improves, people feel optimism, markets return and accelerate based on the new energy miracle driving demand curves, spending, and overall optimism. Talk of a new era of American ingenuity, innovation and bold leadership around the world produce a vision with America becoming energy independent, repatriation of American pride, immigration solutions, and reinvigoration of housing.


Cemex President expects U.S. housing starts to increase 16% next year, hitting 873,000. The company forecasts U.S. residential sector cement demand will jump 14% in 2013.  "We are heading up. People are investing, signing contracts, there’s real momentum… We don’t see our business falling off a cliff," Watson said.


Achilles Heel: Energy Fizzle or Controls

Roaring Teens. We experience an unpredicted and unprecedented boom due to a reset of a new spending cohort 55 & ALIVE, which increases thought to be decelerating spending, increased saving, preparation for retirement as a new investment age to promote higher returns for a longer life.


"In a contrarian view of the economy, not only is there no real danger at the core of the American enterprise, it is about to embark on a growth curve that has not been seen since the days of JP Morgan pulling money from around the globe to grow US GDP over 8 percent per year, 100 years ago." – Roaring Teens

Transduction is not a zero-sum game.


Achilles Heel: Fossil Fuel, Bacteria, Virus, Pests, Water, Population. Growth




No recession, markets don’t correct, continued in-fighting over political stalemates, fear drives consumers away from spending, widespread defaults accelerate as fear creates a positive loop that feeds on itself, the space between now and the future drives a wedge into the American psyche, they fear the end, and stop spending, a recession is triggered before we can get to the next rung in the ladder, gold skyrockets past 2000. Bond holders get worried and press for change in corporate strategies and the deployment of cash and investment in jobs. Small business confidence drops to 50%, spending slows.



Americans are split when asked if the country’s best years are ahead of us or behind us. By almost a 2-1 margin, they predict 2013 will be a year of economic difficulty rather than a year of prosperity.


Achilles Heel: Psychology

Recession, markets continue to run for cover- Dow drops to 3000, gold accelerates towards 5000, deflation emerges, as housing starts drop, construction stocks, manufacturing stocks drop, investment stops completely, money exits the USA, personally and through corporate investment abroad, interests rates become an issue because we can’t sell debt to foreigners, housing payments start to reset, foreclosures and commercial defaults start to pickup. Annual deficit triples in 2014 due to deflation, low collections, and government stimulus. Doomsday is discussed, GDP drops 5%, 10% globally, Europe goes into depression, led by Eastern Europe. The energy miracle fails to materialize quickly enough in the USA.

The unrealistic expectations of being able to manage an economy through money and credit show signs of creating chaos.


Achilles Heel: Energy Miracle

Full-blown global depression, nothing anyone can do to re-ignite demand, the FED buys treasury bills outright to keep interest low to keep the domino effect from running through the economy, spending decreases to 4fs, defaults increase, unemployment skyrockets, fear reigns, gold goes to 10,000, farm land skyrockets, commodities drop, manufacturing grinds to a halt, exports and imports shut down, oil drops to $30. Runs on food due to fear, strikes, and food stamps go to 100 million. The economy shuts down, GDP drops 10% in the USA, even with Government dropping money out of helicopters. Republicans win wide-sweeping elections, presidency and both houses in a majority, based on Armageddon, riots in streets, food shortages, hoarding, and martial law in some places accelerates. Municipalities forgo services, and file bankruptcy to retain control, the Federal Government issues new bonds to save America, FED prints money to buy them, money, credit and lending flood into the system with new Government Money Programs from the bonds, Fed buying all Treasuries now, exports are dropping, imports drop precipitously, Nationalization occurs around the world, Multi-nationals encourage protection, resource hoarding, conflicts occur in all emerging countries due to loss of food, 2 billion without food, food price skyrockets, wide-spread food riots, and violence, military coups abound, military confrontation spreads for territory grabbing for future food supplies, early signs of inflation appear, prices on food start to skyrocket, food shortages in the USA and previously in Europe drive people into the streets, widespread marshal law is declared the military takes over in the USA. China takes Russia west of the Urals.


Achilles Heel: Transduction